Why Free Credit Reports Are Worth What They Cost

The ubiquity of "free" credit reporting services like FreeCreditReport.com, TrueCredit.com, and AnnualCreditReport.com have helped breed a new generation of credit-aware Americans.

Because credit ratings have more importance to everyday life than in years past, this is a welcome development. For example:

• Lenders use credit ratings to determine borrowing rates
• Insurers use credit ratings to determine premiums
• Employers use credit ratings to make hiring decision

Unfortunately for Americans, though, not all credit reports are created equal. And when it comes to actually applying for credit in the form of a new credit card or mortgage, the free reports are worth precisely what they cost.

This is one reason why home buyers should have their credit reviewed by a mortgage lender as soon as possible in the home buying process -- the free reports offered by the major credit bureaus may be misleading and incomplete.

Free credit reports are useful for identifying identity theft and reviewing active accounts, but do very little to help a potential creditor gauge your creditworthiness.

As the chart shows us, each industry's creditors has a way they like to do business and that way is the "standard" way.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : May 5, 2008

Mortgage rates ended higher last week on stronger-than-expected jobs data, strong consumer spending, and an appetite for riskier investments.

But, investors were most excited about the Federal Reserve's hint that its rate-cutting cycle may be over.

The week was quiet until Wednesday when the Federal Reserve voted to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent.

The rate cut wasn't the big news, however.

Market players were most interested in Fed's press release in which it confirmed that the economy is struggling, but improving. The remarks were both soothing and a strong contrast to the Alarmist Analysts -- the ones that make for better television than analysis sometimes.

The Fed's statement also forced investors to rethink their economic outlook for the short- and long-term and when investors change their outlook, markets can be volatile.

One of the more important shifts in thinking now is the attitude towards the U.S. Dollar. An improving economy tends to be good for the dollar and that can help lead to lower mortgage rates.

The dollar's gains last week, incidentally, helped lower gas prices nationwide for the first time in almost 3 weeks. In the 18 days leading up to Friday, gas prices had made 18 consecutive record-highs.

This week, with very little new data and with few companies reporting earnings, expect market momentum to determine in which direction mortgage rates will go.

Because momentum can change quickly, be prepared to lock your mortgage rate if you see one that fits your budget -- it may not last long.

Why Mortgage Rates Aren't Falling Even Though The Economy Is Shedding Jobs

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy shed 20,000 jobs in April 2008. The labor force now counts at 146 million people as employed.

Normally, a loss of jobs would foretell economic weakness and would be a good thing for mortgage rate shoppers. Today, though, traders had been expecting a larger loss of 70,000 jobs.

In other words, today's jobs report looks surprisingly strong.

The stock market is now rallying on optimism that "the worst is over" for the U.S. economy and evidence supporting the Federal Reserve's remarks that its rate cuts were starting to take hold.

The stock market's gains are the bond market's losses.

Mortgage rates are up today because the cash that is fueling the stock market is coming from the sale of all types of bonds -- including mortgage bonds.

This is unwelcome news for people doing mortgage comparisons today, or buying a home this weekend.

In general, interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages are increasing more than on fixed-rate mortgages.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

Making English Out Of Fed-Speak (April 2008 Edition)

The Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent to 2.000% yesterday afternoon.

Because it is tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate also fell by a quarter-percent. Prime Rate is now 5.000%.

Holders of home equity lines of credit and credit card debt benefited from the change and will see lower interest costs in next month's statements.

Mortgage rate shoppers are also benefiting.

Each time the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds Rate, it's meant to stimulate the economy in growth. Too much stimulation can create too much growth and that often leads to inflation (which causes mortgage rates to rise).

This is one reason why mortgage rates had not fallen over the past few months. Each Fed Funds Rate cut made it more likely that the economy would overheat in the second half of 2008.

So, because the Federal Reserve signaled that a rate-cutting "pause" may be ahead, investors are reducing expectations for a Fed-induced inflation cycle for later this year, pushing rates lower.

The FOMC's next scheduled get-together is a two-day meeting June 24-25, 2008.

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
April 30, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/internal/mdc/info-fedparse0804.html

Why It Doesn't Matter What The Federal Reserve Did Yesterday

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourned from its two-day meeting yesterday.

Markets expected the Fed to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250 percent in its press release (which it did), but it's not what the Fed does that matters to the economy right now.

It's what the Fed says.

If the Fed states that future rate cuts are needed to stabilize the economy, mortgage rates should rise because rate cuts tend to create inflation. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

By contrast, if the Fed states that it will "pause" before making additional rate cuts (or hikes), mortgage rates should fall.

We'll dissect the message in a separate post, but the most important message to remember is this:

The Federal Reserve does not directly control mortgage rates.

The Fed only controls the Fed Funds Rate, the interest rate on a very specific type of loan made from one bank to another. The Fed Funds Rate, however, is directly related to a consumer-focused interest rate called Prime Rate.

Prime Rate is the basis of interest rates on credit cards and home equity lines of credit.

Since the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent, it means that the interest rate on Americans' collective credit card and home equity line debt will fall by a quarter-percent, too.