After a tame Consumer Price Index report Friday, mortgage bonds staged a brief rally and rates retreated slightly. Earlier in the week, mortgage rates were at their highest point in almost a year.
Unfortunately for rate shoppers, mortgage investors are behaving like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde right now. One moment, they hate the outlook on inflation; the next, they love it.
What's really confusing is that data points that made mortgage rates move higher or lower 6-9 months ago (i.e. jobs report, crude oil prices, housing stats) are now being discounted.
Broader data points such as CPI seem to have taken center stage.
At least for now.
This week, there are virtually no data points of consequence aside from Tuesday's Housing Starts data. Given last month's seasonable weather across the country, don't be surprised if the number surprises to the hot side.
So, without data, expect mortgage rates to respond to external factors, technical trading factors, and/or irregular weather patterns.
