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8.01.2007

Inflation Lower - Consumer Confidence Highest Since 9/11

The Core Personal Consumption price index or Core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 1.9% in the past year, the lowest since early 2004. Wall Street was looking for an increase of 2.0% year-over-year.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported that inflation increased 0.1% in June, the lowest monthly inflation since November. The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge and their comfort zone is in the 1 - 2% range.

The personal savings rate as percentage of disposable personal income was 0.6% in June. It was 0.4% in May. Previous data had showed May savings at a negative 1.4%, the 26th straight month the yardstick showed red.

However, the June report included revised estimates for income, spending and saving back through 2004. As a result, most months during the past two years that had showed a negative saving rate were adjusted to show a positive rate.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in June to 112.6 up from 105.3 in June when economists were looking for a reading of 105. "The rebound in Consumer Confidence has catapulted the Index to its highest reading in nearly six years. An improvement in business conditions and the job market has lifted consumers' spirits in July.

Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat about short-term economic prospects, mainly the result of a decline in the number of pessimists, not an increase in the number of optimists. This rebound in confidence suggests economic activity may gather a little momentum in the coming months."

The Conference Board is the world's preeminent business membership and research organization. Best known for the Consumer Confidence Index and the Leading Economic Indicators, The Conference Board has, for over 90 years, equipped the world's leading corporations with practical knowledge through issues-oriented research and senior executive peer-to-peer meetings.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company.

Brought to you, courtesy of The Mortgage Market Guide