The Truth About Those "4.500 Percent Mortgage Rates" You Keep Hearing About

Business television was abuzz yesterday morning with talk of "four-point-five percent mortgage rates"; the clip above ran on NBC Today. The news stems from a leaked story that the U.S. Treasury will intervene in the mortgage market, lowering rates a full percentage point below their current levels.

As cited by every journalist in every publication, however, the story is 100% speculation. Naturally, that doesn't stop the press from covering it. When hope for homeowners gets spread in this manner, it's important to remember some facts:

1. The Treasury does NOT set mortgage rates -- Wall Street traders do. Historically, rates are based on the Supply and Demand for mortgage-backed bonds.
2. Treasury intervention does NOT guarantee low rates. That mortgage rates were up by a half-percent since last week proves it.
3. Zero details about the plan have been confirmed, quoting CNBC. Everything you've heard about 4.5 percent rates is a guess at this point.

But, perhaps most importantly, nearly every analyst interviewed has expressed a belief that a Treasury-sponsored stimulus would apply to home buyers only. Homeowners wanting a refinance, in other words, would be ineligible.

Mortgage rates were very low yesterday compared to where they've been in 2006, 2007 and 2008. If you think your mortgage rate is too high for this market, reach out to your loan officer to review all of your options. If rates really do reach 4.500 percent, you can always refinance again later.

Why July May Be The Best Time To Write A Purchase Contract In 2008

It's a terrific time to buy a home, but not because homes happen to be affordable.

It's a terrific time to buy because the variety of mortgage products available to home buyers looks poised to shrink.

Monday, Alt-A mortgage lender IndyMac Bank stopped accepting mortgage applications and it's likely that other Alt-A lenders will likely follow suit.

Alt-A loans are ones in which borrowers can't (or won't) verify one of two major underwriting criteria:

• Evidence of income
• Evidence of assets

Since the Credit Crunch began last July, Alt-A mortgages have been a steady source of funds for "in-between" borrowers -- those that are not quite prime, and not quite sub-prime. IndyMac was among the largest lenders of its type, and had outlasted many of its peers.

Its position as a market leader, and subsequent exit from lending means that the remaining Alt-A lenders will likely make one of two choices in the coming weeks:

1. Raise rates and fees because of greater Alt-A mortgage risk, or
2. Follow IndyMac's lead and exit mortgage lending altogether

Both outcomes would be harsh for home buyers of all types because when any large bank takes mortgage-related losses like IndyMac just did, it tends to create major risk aversion in the market.

Risk aversion impacts everyone -- even the "good" borrowers.

Banks have been nervous about lending for several months and so they'd rather pass on an "average" mortgage application rather than risk getting stuck with a potentially "bad" one. IndyMac's exit may cause fewer mortgages to get approved.

In other words, buyers eligible for financing today may be ineligible tomorrow.

Therefore, if you're a home buyer and you know your credit profile is less-than-ideal, consider writing a purchase contract sooner rather than later. Your mortgage options may be thinning, and the ones you have may be getting more expensive.